Journal Article > Short ReportFull Text
Pan Afr Med J. 2017 January 18; Volume 26; DOI:10.11604/pamj.2017.26.27.11111
Asfaw Y, Boateng I, Calderon M, Caleo GNC, Conteh LA, et al.
Pan Afr Med J. 2017 January 18; Volume 26; DOI:10.11604/pamj.2017.26.27.11111
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Int J Infect Dis. 2022 September 1; Volume 122; 215-221.; DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2022.05.039
Zheng Q, Luquero FJ, Ciglenecki I, Wamala JF, Abubakar A, et al.
Int J Infect Dis. 2022 September 1; Volume 122; 215-221.; DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2022.05.039
BACKGROUND
Cholera remains a public health threat but is inequitably distributed across sub-Saharan Africa. Lack of standardized reporting and inconsistent outbreak definitions limit our understanding of cholera outbreak epidemiology.
METHODS
From a database of cholera incidence and mortality, we extracted data from sub-Saharan Africa and reconstructed outbreaks of suspected cholera starting in January 2010 to December 2019 based on location-specific average weekly incidence rate thresholds. We then described the distribution of key outbreak metrics.
RESULTS
We identified 999 suspected cholera outbreaks in 744 regions across 25 sub-Saharan African countries. The outbreak periods accounted for 1.8 billion person-months (2% of the total during this period) from January 2010 to January 2020. Among 692 outbreaks reported from second-level administrative units (e.g., districts), the median attack rate was 0.8 per 1000 people (interquartile range (IQR), 0.3-2.4 per 1000), the median epidemic duration was 13 weeks (IQR, 8-19), and the median early outbreak reproductive number was 1.8 (range, 1.1-3.5). Larger attack rates were associated with longer times to outbreak peak, longer epidemic durations, and lower case fatality risks.
CONCLUSIONS
This study provides a baseline from which the progress toward cholera control and essential statistics to inform outbreak management in sub-Saharan Africa can be monitored.
Cholera remains a public health threat but is inequitably distributed across sub-Saharan Africa. Lack of standardized reporting and inconsistent outbreak definitions limit our understanding of cholera outbreak epidemiology.
METHODS
From a database of cholera incidence and mortality, we extracted data from sub-Saharan Africa and reconstructed outbreaks of suspected cholera starting in January 2010 to December 2019 based on location-specific average weekly incidence rate thresholds. We then described the distribution of key outbreak metrics.
RESULTS
We identified 999 suspected cholera outbreaks in 744 regions across 25 sub-Saharan African countries. The outbreak periods accounted for 1.8 billion person-months (2% of the total during this period) from January 2010 to January 2020. Among 692 outbreaks reported from second-level administrative units (e.g., districts), the median attack rate was 0.8 per 1000 people (interquartile range (IQR), 0.3-2.4 per 1000), the median epidemic duration was 13 weeks (IQR, 8-19), and the median early outbreak reproductive number was 1.8 (range, 1.1-3.5). Larger attack rates were associated with longer times to outbreak peak, longer epidemic durations, and lower case fatality risks.
CONCLUSIONS
This study provides a baseline from which the progress toward cholera control and essential statistics to inform outbreak management in sub-Saharan Africa can be monitored.
Other > Pre-Print
bioRxiv. 2017 August 18; DOI:10.1101/177451
Funk S, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Eggo RM, et al.
bioRxiv. 2017 August 18; DOI:10.1101/177451
Real-time forecasts based on mathematical models can inform critical decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks. Yet, epidemic forecasts are rarely evaluated during or after the event, and there is little guidance on the best metrics for assessment. Here, we propose an evaluation approach that disentangles different components of forecasting ability using metrics that separately assess the calibration, sharpness and unbiasedness of forecasts. This makes it possible to assess not just how close a forecast was to reality but also how well uncertainty has been quantified. We used this approach to analyse the performance of weekly forecasts we generated in real time in Western Area, Sierra Leone, during the 2013–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. We investigated a range of forecast model variants based on the model fits generated at the time with a semi-mechanistic model, and found that good probabilistic calibration was achievable at short time horizons of one or two weeks ahead but models were increasingly inaccurate at longer forecasting horizons. This suggests that forecasts may have been of good enough quality to inform decision making requiring predictions a few weeks ahead of time but not longer, reflecting the high level of uncertainty in the processes driving the trajectory of the epidemic. Comparing forecasts based on the semi-mechanistic model to simpler null models showed that the best semi-mechanistic model variant performed better than the null models with respect to probabilistic calibration, and that this would have been identified from the earliest stages of the outbreak. As forecasts become a routine part of the toolkit in public health, standards for evaluation of performance will be important for assessing quality and improving credibility of mathematical models, and for elucidating difficulties and trade-offs when aiming to make the most useful and reliable forecasts.
Journal Article > ProtocolFull Text
PLOS One. 2023 March 30; Volume 18 (Issue 3); e0283643.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0283643
Penfold S, Adegnika AA, Asogun D, Ayodeji O, Azuogu BN, et al.
PLOS One. 2023 March 30; Volume 18 (Issue 3); e0283643.; DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0283643
BACKGROUND
Lassa fever (LF), a haemorrhagic illness caused by the Lassa fever virus (LASV), is endemic in West Africa and causes 5000 fatalities every year. The true prevalence and incidence rates of LF are unknown as infections are often asymptomatic, clinical presentations are varied, and surveillance systems are not robust. The aim of the Enable Lassa research programme is to estimate the incidences of LASV infection and LF disease in five West African countries. The core protocol described here harmonises key study components, such as eligibility criteria, case definitions, outcome measures, and laboratory tests, which will maximise the comparability of data for between-country analyses.
METHOD
We are conducting a prospective cohort study in Benin, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria (three sites), and Sierra Leone from 2020 to 2023, with 24 months of follow-up. Each site will assess the incidence of LASV infection, LF disease, or both. When both incidences are assessed the LASV cohort (n min = 1000 per site) will be drawn from the LF cohort (n min = 5000 per site). During recruitment participants will complete questionnaires on household composition, socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics, and LF history, and blood samples will be collected to determine IgG LASV serostatus. LF disease cohort participants will be contacted biweekly to identify acute febrile cases, from whom blood samples will be drawn to test for active LASV infection using RT-PCR. Symptom and treatment data will be abstracted from medical records of LF cases. LF survivors will be followed up after four months to assess sequelae, specifically sensorineural hearing loss. LASV infection cohort participants will be asked for a blood sample every six months to assess LASV serostatus (IgG and IgM).
DISCUSSION
Data on LASV infection and LF disease incidence in West Africa from this research programme will determine the feasibility of future Phase IIb or III clinical trials for LF vaccine candidates.
Lassa fever (LF), a haemorrhagic illness caused by the Lassa fever virus (LASV), is endemic in West Africa and causes 5000 fatalities every year. The true prevalence and incidence rates of LF are unknown as infections are often asymptomatic, clinical presentations are varied, and surveillance systems are not robust. The aim of the Enable Lassa research programme is to estimate the incidences of LASV infection and LF disease in five West African countries. The core protocol described here harmonises key study components, such as eligibility criteria, case definitions, outcome measures, and laboratory tests, which will maximise the comparability of data for between-country analyses.
METHOD
We are conducting a prospective cohort study in Benin, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria (three sites), and Sierra Leone from 2020 to 2023, with 24 months of follow-up. Each site will assess the incidence of LASV infection, LF disease, or both. When both incidences are assessed the LASV cohort (n min = 1000 per site) will be drawn from the LF cohort (n min = 5000 per site). During recruitment participants will complete questionnaires on household composition, socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics, and LF history, and blood samples will be collected to determine IgG LASV serostatus. LF disease cohort participants will be contacted biweekly to identify acute febrile cases, from whom blood samples will be drawn to test for active LASV infection using RT-PCR. Symptom and treatment data will be abstracted from medical records of LF cases. LF survivors will be followed up after four months to assess sequelae, specifically sensorineural hearing loss. LASV infection cohort participants will be asked for a blood sample every six months to assess LASV serostatus (IgG and IgM).
DISCUSSION
Data on LASV infection and LF disease incidence in West Africa from this research programme will determine the feasibility of future Phase IIb or III clinical trials for LF vaccine candidates.
Journal Article > LetterFull Text
Nature. 2015 June 17; Volume 524 (Issue 7563); 97-101.; DOI:10.1038/nature14594
Carroll MW, Matthews DA, Hiscox JA, Elmore MJ, Pollakis G, et al.
Nature. 2015 June 17; Volume 524 (Issue 7563); 97-101.; DOI:10.1038/nature14594
West Africa is currently witnessing the most extensive Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak so far recorded. Until now, there have been 27,013 reported cases and 11,134 deaths. The origin of the virus is thought to have been a zoonotic transmission from a bat to a twoyear-old boy in December 2013 (ref. 2). From this index case the virus was spread by human-to-human contact throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, the origin of the particular virus in each country and time of transmission is not known and currently relies on epidemiological analysis, which may be unreliable owing to the difficulties of obtaining patient information. Here we trace the genetic evolution of EBOV in the current outbreak that has resulted in multiple lineages. Deep sequencing of 179 patient samples processed by the European Mobile Laboratory, the first diagnostics unit to be deployed to the epicentre of the outbreak in Guinea, reveals an epidemiological and evolutionary history of the epidemic from March 2014 to January 2015. Analysis of EBOV genome evolution has also benefited from a similar sequencing effort of patient samples from Sierra Leone. Our results confirm that the EBOV from Guinea moved into Sierra Leone, most likely in April or early May. The viruses of the Guinea/Sierra Leone lineage mixed around June/July 2014. Viral sequences covering August, September and October 2014 indicate that this lineage evolved independently within Guinea. These data can be used in conjunction with epidemiological information to test retrospectively the effectiveness of control measures, and provides an unprecedented window into the evolution of an ongoing viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Confl Health. 2010 June 17; Volume 4; 12.; DOI:10.1186/1752-1505-4-12
O'Brien DP, Venis S, Greig J, Shanks L, Ellman T, et al.
Confl Health. 2010 June 17; Volume 4; 12.; DOI:10.1186/1752-1505-4-12
INTRODUCTION
Many countries ravaged by conflict have substantial morbidity and mortality attributed to HIV/AIDS yet HIV treatment is uncommonly available. Universal access to HIV care cannot be achieved unless the needs of populations in conflict-affected areas are addressed.
METHODS
From 2003 Médecins Sans Frontières introduced HIV care, including antiretroviral therapy, into 24 programmes in conflict or post-conflict settings, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV care and treatment activities were usually integrated within other medical activities. Project data collected in the Fuchia software system were analysed and outcomes compared with ART-LINC data. Programme reports and other relevant documents and interviews with local and headquarters staff were used to develop lessons learned.
RESULTS
In the 22 programmes where ART was initiated, more than 10,500 people were diagnosed with HIV and received medical care, and 4555 commenced antiretroviral therapy, including 348 children. Complete data were available for adults in 20 programmes (n = 4145). At analysis, 2645 (64%) remained on ART, 422 (10%) had died, 466 (11%) lost to follow-up, 417 (10%) transferred to another programme, and 195 (5%) had an unclear outcome. Median 12-month mortality and loss to follow-up were 9% and 11% respectively, and median 6-month CD4 gain was 129 cells/mm3. Patient outcomes on treatment were comparable to those in stable resource-limited settings, and individuals and communities obtained significant benefits from access to HIV treatment. Programme disruption through instability was uncommon with only one program experiencing interruption to services, and programs were adapted to allow for disruption and population movements. Integration of HIV activities strengthened other health activities contributing to health benefits for all victims of conflict and increasing the potential sustainability for implemented activities.
CONCLUSIONS
With commitment, simplified treatment and monitoring, and adaptations for potential instability, HIV treatment can be feasibly and effectively provided in conflict or post-conflict settings.
Many countries ravaged by conflict have substantial morbidity and mortality attributed to HIV/AIDS yet HIV treatment is uncommonly available. Universal access to HIV care cannot be achieved unless the needs of populations in conflict-affected areas are addressed.
METHODS
From 2003 Médecins Sans Frontières introduced HIV care, including antiretroviral therapy, into 24 programmes in conflict or post-conflict settings, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV care and treatment activities were usually integrated within other medical activities. Project data collected in the Fuchia software system were analysed and outcomes compared with ART-LINC data. Programme reports and other relevant documents and interviews with local and headquarters staff were used to develop lessons learned.
RESULTS
In the 22 programmes where ART was initiated, more than 10,500 people were diagnosed with HIV and received medical care, and 4555 commenced antiretroviral therapy, including 348 children. Complete data were available for adults in 20 programmes (n = 4145). At analysis, 2645 (64%) remained on ART, 422 (10%) had died, 466 (11%) lost to follow-up, 417 (10%) transferred to another programme, and 195 (5%) had an unclear outcome. Median 12-month mortality and loss to follow-up were 9% and 11% respectively, and median 6-month CD4 gain was 129 cells/mm3. Patient outcomes on treatment were comparable to those in stable resource-limited settings, and individuals and communities obtained significant benefits from access to HIV treatment. Programme disruption through instability was uncommon with only one program experiencing interruption to services, and programs were adapted to allow for disruption and population movements. Integration of HIV activities strengthened other health activities contributing to health benefits for all victims of conflict and increasing the potential sustainability for implemented activities.
CONCLUSIONS
With commitment, simplified treatment and monitoring, and adaptations for potential instability, HIV treatment can be feasibly and effectively provided in conflict or post-conflict settings.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Euro Surveill. 2014 October 9; Volume 19 (Issue 40); 20924.
Fitzpatrick G, Vogt F, Gbabai O, Black B, Santantonio M, et al.
Euro Surveill. 2014 October 9; Volume 19 (Issue 40); 20924.
Case management centres (CMCs) are part of the outbreak control plan for Ebola virus disease (EVD). A CMC in Sierra Leone had 33% (138/419) of primary admissions discharged as EVD negative (not a case). Fifteen of these were readmitted within 21 days, nine of which were EVD positive. All readmissions had contact with an Ebola case in the community in the previous 21 days indicating that the infection was likely acquired outside the CMC.
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Public Health Action. 2019 September 1; Volume 9 (Issue 3); 107-112.; DOI:10.5588/pha.18.0045
Gil Cuesta J, Trelles M, Naseer A, Momin A, Ngabo Mulamira L, et al.
Public Health Action. 2019 September 1; Volume 9 (Issue 3); 107-112.; DOI:10.5588/pha.18.0045
English
Français
Español
INTRODUCTION
Conflicts frequently occur in countries with high maternal and neonatal mortality and can aggravate difficulties accessing emergency care. No literature is available on whether the presence of conflict influences the outcomes of mothers and neonates during Caesarean sections (C-sections) in high-mortality settings.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether the presence of conflict was associated with changes in maternal and neonatal mortality during C-sections.
METHODS
We analysed routinely collected data on C-sections from 17 Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) health facilities in 12 countries. Exposure variables included presence and intensity of conflict, type of health facility and other types of access to emergency care.
RESULTS
During 2008–2015, 30,921 C-sections were performed in MSF facilities; of which 55.4% were in areas of conflict. No differences were observed in maternal mortality in conflict settings (0.1%) vs. non-conflict settings (0.1%) (P = 0.08), nor in neonatal mortality between conflict (12.2%) and non-conflict settings (11.5%) (P = 0.1). Among the C-sections carried out in conflict settings, neonatal mortality was slightly higher in war zones compared to areas of minor conflict (P = 0.02); there was no difference in maternal mortality (P = 0.38).
CONCLUSIONS
Maternal and neonatal mortality did not appear to be affected by the presence of conflict in a large number of MSF facilities. This finding should encourage humanitarian organisations to support C-sections in conflict settings to ensure access to quality maternity care.
Conflicts frequently occur in countries with high maternal and neonatal mortality and can aggravate difficulties accessing emergency care. No literature is available on whether the presence of conflict influences the outcomes of mothers and neonates during Caesarean sections (C-sections) in high-mortality settings.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether the presence of conflict was associated with changes in maternal and neonatal mortality during C-sections.
METHODS
We analysed routinely collected data on C-sections from 17 Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) health facilities in 12 countries. Exposure variables included presence and intensity of conflict, type of health facility and other types of access to emergency care.
RESULTS
During 2008–2015, 30,921 C-sections were performed in MSF facilities; of which 55.4% were in areas of conflict. No differences were observed in maternal mortality in conflict settings (0.1%) vs. non-conflict settings (0.1%) (P = 0.08), nor in neonatal mortality between conflict (12.2%) and non-conflict settings (11.5%) (P = 0.1). Among the C-sections carried out in conflict settings, neonatal mortality was slightly higher in war zones compared to areas of minor conflict (P = 0.02); there was no difference in maternal mortality (P = 0.38).
CONCLUSIONS
Maternal and neonatal mortality did not appear to be affected by the presence of conflict in a large number of MSF facilities. This finding should encourage humanitarian organisations to support C-sections in conflict settings to ensure access to quality maternity care.
Journal Article > CommentaryFull Text
Lancet. 2000 June 10; Volume 355 (Issue 9220); 2067-2068.; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(00)02364-3
de Jong J, Mulhern M, Ford NP, van der Kam S, Kleber RJ
Lancet. 2000 June 10; Volume 355 (Issue 9220); 2067-2068.; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(00)02364-3
Journal Article > ResearchFull Text
Pain. 2002 September 1
Lacoux PA, Crombie IK, Macrae WA
Pain. 2002 September 1
Data on 40 upper limb amputees (11 bilateral) with regard to stump pain, phantom sensation and phantom pain is presented. All the patients lost their limbs as a result of violent injuries intended to terrorise the population and were assessed 10-48 months after the injury. All amputees reported stump pain in the month prior to interview and ten of the 11 bilateral amputees had bilateral pain. Phantom sensation was common (92.5%), but phantom pain was only present in 32.5% of amputees. Problems in translation and explanation may have influenced the low incidence of phantom pain and high incidence of stump pain. In the bilateral amputees phantom sensation, phantom pain and telescoping all showed bilateral concordance, whereas stump pain and neuromas did not show concordance. About half the subjects (56%) had lost their limb at the time of injury (primary) while the remainder had an injury, then a subsequent amputation in hospital (secondary). There was no association between the incidence of phantom pain and amputation irrespective of being primary or secondary.